Tombense 1–0 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie C

Tombense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Criciuma

Gabriel Lima 38'

9/30/2020

Serie C · Round 4Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tombense52%

×Draw29%

Criciuma19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.64

Tombense

1.28

Criciuma

0.64

Tombense creates 100% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 21 away

1.32

creates per match

0.48

0.80

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Tombense

1.32

Criciuma

0.48

allows per match

Tombense

0.80

Criciuma

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

81%

Tombense or Criciuma

71%

Draw or Criciuma

48%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

24%

Criciuma wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

72%

Tombense 2+ goals

37%

Tombense 3+ goals

14%

Criciuma 1+ goals

47%

Criciuma 2+ goals

14%

Criciuma 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

74%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.32 + Criciuma defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Criciuma attack 0.48 + Tombense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tombense scores more

52%

level

29%

Criciuma scores more

19%

Tombense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

Gabriel Lima

67'

Zeca← Adriano

71'

Daniel Cruz← Maycon

71'

Zé Vitor← Marquinhos

80'

Alessandro Vinícius← Léo Ceará

80'

Thiago Henrique← Andrew

82'

Alípio← Gabriel Lima

85'

Jhemerson← Ibson

89'

Vitão← Christofer

90+5'

Guilherme

Tombense

Criciuma

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lima

Manager: Julinho Camargo

71'▲Daniel Cruz←▼Maycon

71'▲Zé Vitor←▼Marquinhos

82'▲Alípio←▼Gabriel Lima

85'▲Jhemerson←▼Ibson

Tombense substitutes

CruzVitorAlípioJhemersonLopesEduardoKaioManoelClaudinoDias

Manager: Roberto Cavalo

67'▲Zeca←▼Adriano

80'▲Alessandro Vinícius←▼Léo Ceará

80'▲Thiago Henrique←▼Andrew

89'▲Vitão←▼Christofer

Criciuma substitutes

ZecaViníciusHenriqueVitãoQueirozCarlosRullianWagner