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Tombense vs Botafogo SP — Serie C 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
8/11/2018Serie CSerie C · Round 18Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tombense42%
×Draw30%
Botafogo SP28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.18
Botafogo SP
0.90

Tombense creates 31% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.32
Botafogo SP
1.00

allows per match

Tombense
0.80
Botafogo SP
1.03

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Botafogo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
72%
Tombense or Botafogo SP
70%
Draw or Botafogo SP
58%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
18%
Botafogo SP wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
69%
Tombense 2+ goals
33%
Tombense 3+ goals
12%
Botafogo SP 1+ goals
59%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
23%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
60%
Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.32 + Botafogo SP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Botafogo SP attack 1.00 + Tombense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tombense scores more
42%
level
30%
Botafogo SP scores more
28%

Tombense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tombense 0 – 0 Botafogo SP

Tombense and Botafogo SP drew 0-0 in Serie C on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais).