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Botafogo SP vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
6/10/2018Serie CSerie C · Round 9Estádio Santa Cruz (Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Botafogo SP48%
×Draw27%
Tombense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP
1.42
Tombense
0.94

Botafogo SP creates 51% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 59 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP
1.55
Tombense
0.75

allows per match

Botafogo SP
1.13
Tombense
1.29

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw
75%
Botafogo SP or Tombense
73%
Draw or Tombense
52%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+
24%
Tombense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals
76%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
41%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
17%
Tombense 1+ goals
61%
Tombense 2+ goals
24%
Tombense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
66%
Tombense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.55 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tombense attack 0.75 + Botafogo SP defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Botafogo SP scores more
48%
level
27%
Tombense scores more
25%

Botafogo SP at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botafogo SP 1 – 0 Tombense

Botafogo SP beat Tombense 1-0 in Serie C on June 10, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Santa Cruz (Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo).