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Tombense vs Avai — Copa Sul-Sudeste 2026

Tombense
Tombense
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Avai
Avai
3/25/2026Copa Sul-SudesteCopa Sul-Sudeste · Group Stage - 1Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tombense45%
×Draw20%
Avai35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
2.33
Avai
2.04

Tombense creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tombense
2.67
Avai
1.75

allows per match

Tombense
2.33
Avai
2.00

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Avai+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
65%
Tombense or Avai
80%
Draw or Avai
55%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
27%
Avai wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
90%
Tombense 2+ goals
67%
Tombense 3+ goals
41%
Avai 1+ goals
87%
Avai 2+ goals
60%
Avai 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
56%
Avai (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Avai away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 2.67 + Avai defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Avai attack 1.75 + Tombense defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tombense scores more
45%
level
20%
Avai scores more
35%

Tombense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tombense 3 – 2 Avai

Tombense beat Avai 3-2 in Copa Sul-Sudeste on March 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in Tombos.