Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avai vs Tombense — Serie B 2018

Avai
Avai
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tombense
Tombense
8/19/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 24Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Avai51%
×Draw27%
Tombense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avai
1.44
Tombense
0.83

Avai creates 73% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 38 away

creates per match

Avai
1.21
Tombense
0.74

allows per match

Avai
0.93
Tombense
1.66

finishing

Avai+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avai or draw
78%
Avai or Tombense
73%
Draw or Tombense
49%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+
26%
Tombense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals
76%
Avai 2+ goals
42%
Avai 3+ goals
18%
Tombense 1+ goals
56%
Tombense 2+ goals
20%
Tombense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)
70%
Tombense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.93 · 123 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.21 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tombense attack 0.74 + Avai defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Avai scores more
51%
level
27%
Tombense scores more
22%

Avai at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Avai 4–2 Tombense

Avai beat Tombense 4-2 in Serie B on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.