Tombense 3–2 Atlético Acreano: Result & Stats

Tombense

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Acreano

Rubens 70', 48' (pen)

Cássio Ortega 18'

Diogo 79'

Matheus 31'

8/17/2019

Serie C · Round 17Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tombense63%

×Draw23%

Atlético Acreano14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchAtlético Acreano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.71

Tombense

1.79

Atlético Acreano

0.71

Tombense creates 152% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

1.36

creates per match

0.58

0.84

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Tombense

1.36

Atlético Acreano

0.58

allows per match

Tombense

0.84

Atlético Acreano

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Atlético Acreano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

86%

Tombense or Atlético Acreano

77%

Draw or Atlético Acreano

37%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

37%

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

83%

Tombense 2+ goals

53%

Tombense 3+ goals

26%

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

51%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

16%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

82%

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 61 matches

Atlético Acreano away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.36 + Atlético Acreano defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.79

Atlético Acreano attack 0.58 + Tombense defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tombense scores more

63%

level

23%

Atlético Acreano scores more

14%

Tombense at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Cássio Ortega

31'

Matheus

43'

Lincoln← Felipe Cordeiro

48'

RubensPenalty

50'

Geovani← Jô

56'

Igor← Marcus Vinicius

62'

Edson← Adeílson

68'

Ocimar← Kássio

70'

Rubens

74'

Robson Rodrigo← Ibson

79'

Diogo

Tombense

Atlético

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Eugênio Souza

43'▲Lincoln←▼Felipe Cordeiro

62'▲Edson←▼Adeílson

74'▲Robson Rodrigo←▼Ibson

Tombense substitutes

LincolnEdsonRodrigoVictorÍcaroJudivanSáFernandoClaudinoTrindadeRodrigoVander

Manager: Alvaro

50'▲Geovani←▼Jô

56'▲Igor←▼Marcus Vinicius

68'▲Ocimar←▼Kássio

Atlético Acreano substitutes

GeovaniIgorOcimarSebastiãoDiegoMendes