Atlético Acreano 2–1 Tombense: Result & Stats

Atlético Acreano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tombense

Vinicius Baiano 80'

Diogo 75'

Judivan 18'

6/16/2019

Serie C · Round 8Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes (Rio Branco, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Acreano48%

×Draw27%

Tombense25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AcreanoExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.92

Atlético Acreano

1.39

Tombense

0.92

Atlético Acreano creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 62 away

1.47

creates per match

0.73

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Atlético Acreano

1.47

Tombense

0.73

allows per match

Atlético Acreano

1.11

Tombense

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Acreano ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Acreano or draw

75%

Atlético Acreano or Tombense

73%

Draw or Tombense

52%

Winning margin

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

23%

Tombense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

40%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

16%

Tombense 1+ goals

60%

Tombense 2+ goals

23%

Tombense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

66%

Tombense (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Acreano at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Acreano attack 1.47 + Tombense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tombense attack 0.73 + Atlético Acreano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Acreano scores more

48%

level

27%

Tombense scores more

25%

Atlético Acreano at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Acreano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Judivan

52'

Marcilio← Marquinhos

54'

Diogo← Felipe

69'

Henrique Santos← Luiz Fernando

71'

Vinicius Baiano← Ismael

75'

Augusto Recife← Vander

75'

Diogo

80'

Vinicius Baiano

86'

Rubens← Ibson

Atlético

Tombense

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alvaro

52'▲Marcilio←▼Marquinhos

54'▲Diogo←▼Felipe

71'▲Vinicius Baiano←▼Ismael

Atlético Acreano substitutes

MarcilioDiogoBaianoMillerDouglasDouglasGeovaniIgorMendesMatheusOcimarStenio

Manager: Ricardo Drubscky

69'▲Henrique Santos←▼Luiz Fernando

75'▲Augusto Recife←▼Vander

86'▲Rubens←▼Ibson

Tombense substitutes

SantosRecifeRubensCordeiroLincolnSáManoelMarquinhosVictor

Serie C: Atlético Acreano 2–1 Tombense

Atlético Acreano beat Tombense 2-1 in Serie C on June 16, 2019.

Goals: Judivan (18'), Diogo (75'), Vinicius Baiano (80').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes (Rio Branco, Acre).

Atlético Acreano vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Atlético Acreano 2–1 Tombense