Tomasovia Tomaszów 0–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Tomasovia Tomaszów

FT

0 – 0

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

10/24/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów31%

×Draw23%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tomasovia TomaszówExpected goals in this matchPodlasie Biała Podlaska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.73

Tomasovia Tomaszów

1.41

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.73

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

1.24

creates per match

1.39

2.06

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów

1.24

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.39

allows per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów

2.06

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomasovia Tomaszów ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tomasovia Tomaszów or draw

55%

Tomasovia Tomaszów or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

77%

Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

69%

Winning margin

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+

14%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals

76%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals

41%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals

17%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals

82%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals

52%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)

41%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomasovia Tomaszów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 1.24 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more

31%

level

23%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more

45%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff