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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Tomasovia Tomaszów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
5/28/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska55%
×Draw23%
Tomasovia Tomaszów23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.87
Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.12

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 67% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Tomasovia Tomaszów
0.94

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.00

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Tomasovia Tomaszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
77%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Tomasovia Tomaszów
77%
Draw or Tomasovia Tomaszów
45%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
31%
Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
85%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
56%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
29%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
67%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
31%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
71%
Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.87

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 0.94 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
55%
level
23%
Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
23%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1–0 Tomasovia Tomaszów

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Tomasovia Tomaszów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej in Biała Podlaska.