TOM Tomsk 2–0 Mordovia Saransk: Result & Stats

TOM Tomsk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mordovia Saransk

R. Manuylov 90+1'

M. Kazankov 74' (pen)

10/23/2019

First League · Round 19Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

TOM Tomsk48%

×Draw27%

Mordovia Saransk25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOM TomskExpected goals in this matchMordovia Saransk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.93

TOM Tomsk

1.42

Mordovia Saransk

0.93

TOM Tomsk creates 53% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 36 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

TOM Tomsk

1.22

Mordovia Saransk

1.00

allows per match

TOM Tomsk

0.86

Mordovia Saransk

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOM Tomsk ↓

Mordovia Saransk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

TOM Tomsk or draw

75%

TOM Tomsk or Mordovia Saransk

73%

Draw or Mordovia Saransk

52%

Winning margin

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+

24%

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals

76%

TOM Tomsk 2+ goals

41%

TOM Tomsk 3+ goals

17%

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals

61%

Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals

24%

Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)

66%

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOM Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOM Tomsk attack 1.22 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + TOM Tomsk defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TOM Tomsk scores more

48%

level

27%

Mordovia Saransk scores more

25%

TOM Tomsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "TOM Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

49'

58'

69'

73'

74'

M. KazankovPenalty

80'

I. Klimov

89'

R. Manuylov← M. Kazankov

90+1'

R. Manuylov

TOM

Mordovia

1

14

24

90

19

9

25

88

2

15

18

▼

1

5

93

24

23

10

⚽

▼

18

19

78

98

▼

Pletnev

11

Tlupov

Manager: V. Baskakov

58'▲D. Sasin←▼D. Pletnev

89'▲R. Manuylov←▼M. Kazankov

TOM Tomsk substitutes

7Sasin27Manuylov4Lisinkov8Andreev13Leonov22Shurygin25Sakovich30Siukaev39Zapryagaev63Zubchikhin

Manager: M. Mustafin

46'▲M. Fedak←▼A. Ermakov

Mordovia Saransk substitutes

32Fedak3Strelov30Kalikhanov35Aysin

Match Recap: TOM Tomsk vs Mordovia Saransk

TOM Tomsk beat Mordovia Saransk 2-0 in First League on October 23, 2019.

Goals: M. Kazankov (74' pen), R. Manuylov (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Tomsk.

TOM Tomsk vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: TOM Tomsk vs Mordovia Saransk