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Tom Tomsk vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Tom Tomsk
Tom Tomsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
A. Gasilin 77'
3/24/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Trud (Tomsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tom Tomsk48%
×Draw27%
Mordovia Saransk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tom Tomsk
1.42
Mordovia Saransk
0.93

Tom Tomsk creates 53% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 36 away

creates per match

Tom Tomsk
1.22
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Tom Tomsk
0.86
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tom Tomsk ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tom Tomsk or draw
75%
Tom Tomsk or Mordovia Saransk
73%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
52%

Winning margin

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+
24%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals
76%
Tom Tomsk 2+ goals
41%
Tom Tomsk 3+ goals
17%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
61%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
24%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)
66%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tom Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tom Tomsk attack 1.22 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Tom Tomsk defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tom Tomsk scores more
48%
level
27%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
25%

Tom Tomsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tom Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
Aleksey Shumskikh
64'
Roman Bugaev
77'
A. Gasilin
90'
Islamnur Abdulavov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tom Tomsk 1–0 Mordovia Saransk

Tom Tomsk beat Mordovia Saransk 1-0 in First League on March 24, 2019.

Goals: A. Gasilin (77').

The match was played at Stadion Trud (Tomsk).