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Tom Tomsk vs FC Armavir — First League 2018

Tom Tomsk
Tom Tomsk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Armavir
FC Armavir
8/18/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Trud (Tomsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tom Tomsk47%
×Draw30%
FC Armavir23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tom Tomsk
1.23
FC Armavir
0.77

Tom Tomsk creates 60% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 32 away

creates per match

Tom Tomsk
1.22
FC Armavir
0.69

allows per match

Tom Tomsk
0.85
FC Armavir
1.25

finishing

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par
FC Armavir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tom Tomsk ↓

FC Armavir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tom Tomsk or draw
77%
Tom Tomsk or FC Armavir
70%
Draw or FC Armavir
53%

Winning margin

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+
21%
FC Armavir wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals
71%
Tom Tomsk 2+ goals
35%
Tom Tomsk 3+ goals
13%
FC Armavir 1+ goals
54%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
18%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)
67%
FC Armavir (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tom Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

FC Armavir away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tom Tomsk attack 1.22 + FC Armavir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

FC Armavir attack 0.69 + Tom Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tom Tomsk scores more
47%
level
30%
FC Armavir scores more
23%

Tom Tomsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tom Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tom Tomsk vs FC Armavir

Tom Tomsk beat FC Armavir 3-0 in First League on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Trud (Tomsk).