FC Armavir 0–0 Tom Tomsk: Result & Stats

FC Armavir

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tom Tomsk

3/3/2019

First League · Round 25Stadion Yunost' (Armavir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir40%

×Draw30%

Tom Tomsk30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ArmavirExpected goals in this matchTom Tomsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.96

FC Armavir

1.16

Tom Tomsk

0.96

FC Armavir creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 74 away

1.00

creates per match

0.91

1.00

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

FC Armavir

1.00

Tom Tomsk

0.91

allows per match

FC Armavir

1.00

Tom Tomsk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

Tom Tomsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw

70%

FC Armavir or Tom Tomsk

70%

Draw or Tom Tomsk

60%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+

17%

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals

69%

FC Armavir 2+ goals

32%

FC Armavir 3+ goals

11%

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals

62%

Tom Tomsk 2+ goals

25%

Tom Tomsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)

57%

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Tom Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + Tom Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tom Tomsk attack 0.91 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Armavir scores more

40%

level

30%

Tom Tomsk scores more

30%

FC Armavir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Armavir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff