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TOM Tomsk vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2018

TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
11/15/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

TOM Tomsk45%
×Draw27%
Chertanovo Moscow28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOM Tomsk
1.38
Chertanovo Moscow
1.02

TOM Tomsk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 54 away

creates per match

TOM Tomsk
1.22
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

TOM Tomsk
0.85
Chertanovo Moscow
1.54

finishing

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOM Tomsk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TOM Tomsk or draw
72%
TOM Tomsk or Chertanovo Moscow
73%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
55%

Winning margin

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
21%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
75%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
40%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
16%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
64%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
27%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
62%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOM Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOM Tomsk attack 1.22 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + TOM Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TOM Tomsk scores more
45%
level
27%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
28%

TOM Tomsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TOM Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: TOM Tomsk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat TOM Tomsk 2-1 in First League on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Tomsk.