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Chertanovo Moscow vs TOM Tomsk — First League 2018

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
8/8/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow42%
×Draw27%
TOM Tomsk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.34
TOM Tomsk
1.10

Chertanovo Moscow creates 22% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 74 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.36
TOM Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.30
TOM Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

TOM Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
69%
Chertanovo Moscow or TOM Tomsk
73%
Draw or TOM Tomsk
58%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
19%
TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
74%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
39%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
15%
TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
67%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
30%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
58%
TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

TOM Tomsk attack 0.91 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
42%
level
27%
TOM Tomsk scores more
31%

Chertanovo Moscow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs TOM Tomsk

Chertanovo Moscow beat TOM Tomsk 2-0 in First League on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Moscow.