Tom Tomsk 1–0 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Tom Tomsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avangard Kursk

5/4/2019

First League · Round 35Stadion Trud (Tomsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tom Tomsk46%

×Draw28%

Avangard Kursk26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tom TomskExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.90

Tom Tomsk

1.30

Avangard Kursk

0.90

Tom Tomsk creates 44% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 32 away

1.22

creates per match

0.94

0.85

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Tom Tomsk

1.22

Avangard Kursk

0.94

allows per match

Tom Tomsk

0.85

Avangard Kursk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tom Tomsk ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tom Tomsk or draw

74%

Tom Tomsk or Avangard Kursk

72%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

54%

Winning margin

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+

21%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals

73%

Tom Tomsk 2+ goals

37%

Tom Tomsk 3+ goals

14%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

59%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

23%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)

64%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tom Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tom Tomsk attack 1.22 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Tom Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tom Tomsk scores more

46%

level

28%

Avangard Kursk scores more

26%

Tom Tomsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tom Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff