Avangard Kursk 0–0 Tom Tomsk: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tom Tomsk

10/20/2018

First League · Round 17Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Avangard Kursk45%

×Draw27%

Tom Tomsk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchTom Tomsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.02

Avangard Kursk

1.37

Tom Tomsk

1.02

Avangard Kursk creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 74 away

1.42

creates per match

0.91

1.12

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.42

Tom Tomsk

0.91

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.12

Tom Tomsk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Tom Tomsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

72%

Avangard Kursk or Tom Tomsk

73%

Draw or Tom Tomsk

55%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

21%

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

75%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

40%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

16%

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals

64%

Tom Tomsk 2+ goals

27%

Tom Tomsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

62%

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Tom Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.42 + Tom Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tom Tomsk attack 0.91 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

45%

level

27%

Tom Tomsk scores more

28%

Avangard Kursk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff