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Toluca vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Necaxa
Necaxa
3/8/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Toluca53%
×Draw23%
Necaxa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.88
Necaxa
1.22

Toluca creates 54% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 140 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Necaxa
1.26

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Necaxa
1.70

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
75%
Toluca or Necaxa
77%
Draw or Necaxa
47%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
30%
Necaxa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
85%
Toluca 2+ goals
56%
Toluca 3+ goals
29%
Necaxa 1+ goals
70%
Necaxa 2+ goals
34%
Necaxa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
68%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Necaxa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.88

Necaxa attack 1.26 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Toluca scores more
53%
level
23%
Necaxa scores more
25%

Toluca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Toluca 5–2 Necaxa

Toluca beat Necaxa 5-2 in Liga MX on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.