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Necaxa vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Toluca
Toluca
2/10/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Necaxa42%
×Draw26%
Toluca33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.45
Toluca
1.26

Necaxa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 149 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Toluca
1.23

allows per match

Necaxa
1.29
Toluca
1.54

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
67%
Necaxa or Toluca
74%
Draw or Toluca
58%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
20%
Toluca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
77%
Necaxa 2+ goals
42%
Necaxa 3+ goals
18%
Toluca 1+ goals
72%
Toluca 2+ goals
36%
Toluca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
56%
Toluca (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 138 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Toluca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Toluca attack 1.23 + Necaxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Necaxa scores more
42%
level
26%
Toluca scores more
33%

Necaxa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Toluca

Necaxa and Toluca drew 3-3 in Liga MX on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes.