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Toluca vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
7/2/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Toluca53%
×Draw23%
Necaxa25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.89
Necaxa
1.23

Toluca creates 54% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 139 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
75%
Toluca or Necaxa
77%
Draw or Necaxa
47%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
30%
Necaxa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
85%
Toluca 2+ goals
56%
Toluca 3+ goals
29%
Necaxa 1+ goals
71%
Necaxa 2+ goals
35%
Necaxa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
68%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Toluca scores more
53%
level
23%
Necaxa scores more
25%

Toluca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
V. HuertaTolucaToluca · D
7.7

Match Events

10'
Cristian González
36'
Claudio Baeza
46'
B. García← C. Orrantía
46'
J. Domínguez← F. Navarro
52'
Vicente Poggi
60'
J. Cortés← V. Poggi
61'
F. Batista← M. Silvera
64'
José Joaquín Esquivel
64'
Fabricio Formiliano
68'
M. Domínguez← H. Jurado
70'
Robert Morales
75'
S. Tlaxcalteco← R. Morales
88'
W. Madrid← B. Garnica

Possession

70%Toluca

Shots

16Toluca

Pass accuracy

55%Toluca

Statistics

TolucaNecaxa
Overview
70%Possession30%
16Total Shots9
5Corners4
15Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots9
3On Target3
6Off Target4
7Blocked2
10Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
70%Possession30%
564Total Passes240
493Accurate Passes171
87%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls8
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Toluca vs Necaxa

Toluca and Necaxa drew 0-0 in Liga MX on July 2, 2023.

Toluca controlled possession (70%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.