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Toluca vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
Tiago Volpi 71' (pen)
C. González 52'
L. Fernández 31' (pen)
4/30/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Toluca53%
×Draw23%
Necaxa25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.89
Necaxa
1.23

Toluca creates 54% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 139 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
75%
Toluca or Necaxa
77%
Draw or Necaxa
47%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
30%
Necaxa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
85%
Toluca 2+ goals
56%
Toluca 3+ goals
29%
Necaxa 1+ goals
71%
Necaxa 2+ goals
35%
Necaxa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
68%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Toluca scores more
53%
level
23%
Necaxa scores more
25%

Toluca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. FernándezTolucaToluca · M
8.7

Match Events

31'
L. FernándezPenalty
33'
Ricardo Monreal
46'
M. Silvera← R. Monreal
46'
F. Madrigal← V. Poggi
51'
Marcel Ruíz
51'
Edgar Méndez
52'
C. González↳ L. Fernández
59'
D. Batallini← Édgar Méndez
71'
Tiago VolpiPenalty
72'
R. Cortéz← J. Esquivel
72'
J. Domínguez← B. Garnica
74'
É. López← M. Ruiz
74'
I. Violante← F. Navarro
74'
J. Venegas← L. Fernández
78'
Maximiliano Araújo
79'
Maximiliano Silvera
81'
Camilo Sanvezzo← C. González
82'
E. López← M. Araújo

Possession

62%Toluca

Shots

13Toluca

Pass accuracy

52%Toluca

Statistics

TolucaNecaxa
Overview
62%Possession38%
13Total Shots7
2Corners3
12Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots7
4On Target3
3Off Target3
6Blocked1
8Inside Box5
5Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
556Total Passes331
481Accurate Passes267
87%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Toluca vs Necaxa

Toluca beat Necaxa 3-0 in Liga MX on April 30, 2023.

Goals: L. Fernández (31' pen), C. González (52'), Tiago Volpi (71' pen).

Toluca controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.