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Toluca vs Club Tijuana — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
9/14/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Toluca59%
×Draw21%
Club Tijuana19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.99
Club Tijuana
1.03

Toluca creates 93% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 135 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Club Tijuana
0.88

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Club Tijuana
1.92

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Club Tijuana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
81%
Toluca or Club Tijuana
79%
Draw or Club Tijuana
41%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
36%
Club Tijuana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
86%
Toluca 2+ goals
59%
Toluca 3+ goals
32%
Club Tijuana 1+ goals
64%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
28%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
76%
Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.92 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Club Tijuana defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.99

Club Tijuana attack 0.88 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Toluca scores more
59%
level
21%
Club Tijuana scores more
19%

Toluca at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Toluca 4–0 Club Tijuana

Toluca beat Club Tijuana 4-0 in Liga MX on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.