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Club Tijuana vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Toluca
Toluca
10/23/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Club Tijuana45%
×Draw25%
Toluca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Tijuana
1.54
Toluca
1.21

Club Tijuana creates 27% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 149 away

creates per match

Club Tijuana
1.54
Toluca
1.23

allows per match

Club Tijuana
1.20
Toluca
1.54

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw
70%
Club Tijuana or Toluca
75%
Draw or Toluca
55%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+
23%
Toluca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals
79%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
45%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
20%
Toluca 1+ goals
70%
Toluca 2+ goals
34%
Toluca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
60%
Toluca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.20 · 140 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.54 + Toluca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Toluca attack 1.23 + Club Tijuana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Tijuana scores more
45%
level
25%
Toluca scores more
30%

Club Tijuana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Tijuana vs Toluca

Club Tijuana and Toluca drew 0-0 in Liga MX on October 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.