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Toluca vs Club Queretaro — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
10/18/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Toluca58%
×Draw22%
Club Queretaro20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.92
Club Queretaro
1.04

Toluca creates 85% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 137 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Club Queretaro
0.91

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Club Queretaro
1.77

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Club Queretaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
80%
Toluca or Club Queretaro
78%
Draw or Club Queretaro
42%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
34%
Club Queretaro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
85%
Toluca 2+ goals
57%
Toluca 3+ goals
30%
Club Queretaro 1+ goals
65%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
28%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
74%
Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.92

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Toluca scores more
58%
level
22%
Club Queretaro scores more
20%

Toluca at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Toluca 4–0 Club Queretaro

Toluca beat Club Queretaro 4-0 in Liga MX on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca.