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Club Queretaro vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Toluca
Toluca
1/13/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Club Queretaro41%
×Draw26%
Toluca33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Queretaro
1.38
Toluca
1.20

Club Queretaro creates 15% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 149 away

creates per match

Club Queretaro
1.22
Toluca
1.23

allows per match

Club Queretaro
1.17
Toluca
1.54

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw
67%
Club Queretaro or Toluca
74%
Draw or Toluca
59%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+
19%
Toluca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals
75%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
40%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
16%
Toluca 1+ goals
70%
Toluca 2+ goals
34%
Toluca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
56%
Toluca (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.22 + Toluca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Toluca attack 1.23 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Club Queretaro scores more
41%
level
26%
Toluca scores more
33%

Club Queretaro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club Queretaro 2–2 Toluca

Club Queretaro and Toluca drew 2-2 in Liga MX on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Corregidora in Santiago de Querétaro.