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Toluca vs Atlas — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlas
Atlas
J. Angulo 90'
V. H. Rios De Alba 90'
3/15/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Nemesio Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Toluca51%
×Draw25%
Atlas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.57
Atlas
0.97

Toluca creates 62% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Toluca
1.53
Atlas
1.00

allows per match

Toluca
0.93
Atlas
1.61

finishing

Toluca+0.18scores more
Atlas+0.08on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
77%
Toluca or Atlas
75%
Draw or Atlas
49%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
27%
Atlas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
79%
Toluca 2+ goals
46%
Toluca 3+ goals
21%
Atlas 1+ goals
62%
Atlas 2+ goals
25%
Atlas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
69%
Atlas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 1.53 + Atlas defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Atlas attack 1.00 + Toluca defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Toluca scores more
51%
level
25%
Atlas scores more
23%

Toluca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
V. H. Rios De AlbaAtlasAtlas · M
8.3

Match Events

35'
Diego González
46'
V. H. Rios De Alba← E. Zaldivar
56'
Gaddi Aguirre
59'
Helinho← P. Perez
59'
Paulinho← F. Rossi
65'
Paulinho
65'
J. Angulo← S. Cordova
65'
N. Castro← V. Arteaga
70'
Luan Garcia
70'
Aldo Rocha
79'
L. Gamboa← A. Rocha
85'
D. Barbosa← S. Aceves
89'
E. Aguirre← A. Gonzalez
90'
J. Angulo↳ Paulinho
90'
V. H. Rios De Alba↳ L. Gamboa

Possession

63%Toluca

Shots

26Toluca

Pass accuracy

54%Toluca

Statistics

TolucaAtlas
Overview
63%Possession37%
26Total Shots12
2.10Expected Goals (xG)1.05
8Corners4
9Fouls13
Shots
26Total Shots12
8On Target5
12Off Target6
6Blocked1
16Inside Box8
10Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
435Total Passes265
379Accurate Passes193
87%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
0.41Goals Prevented0.41
Discipline
9Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Liga MX: Toluca 1–1 Atlas

Toluca and Atlas drew 1-1 in Liga MX on March 15, 2026.

Goals: J. Angulo (90'), V. H. Rios De Alba (90').

Toluca controlled possession (63%) and registered 26 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Diez in Toluca.