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Atlas vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Toluca
Toluca
11/1/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atlas27%
×Draw26%
Toluca47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.08
Toluca
1.49

Toluca creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.06
Toluca
1.61

allows per match

Atlas
1.37
Toluca
1.11

finishing

Atlas+0.05on par
Toluca-0.28scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
53%
Atlas or Toluca
74%
Draw or Toluca
73%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
10%
Toluca wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
66%
Atlas 2+ goals
29%
Atlas 3+ goals
10%
Toluca 1+ goals
77%
Toluca 2+ goals
44%
Toluca 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
37%
Toluca (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.06 + Toluca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Toluca attack 1.61 + Atlas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlas scores more
27%
level
26%
Toluca scores more
47%

Toluca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
C. VargasAtlasAtlas · G
8.2

Match Events

41'
Marcel Ruíz
43'
Uroš Đurđević
44'
Santiago Simón
61'
V. H. Rios De Alba← M. E. Garcia
65'
R. Morales← E. del Villar
73'
Dória
80'
M. Coccaro← U. Djurdjevic
86'
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco← N. Castro
90+1'
M. Isais← J. Gallardo
90+1'
H. Herrera← M. Ruiz

Possession

34%Atlas

Shots

11Atlas

Pass accuracy

47%Atlas

Statistics

AtlasToluca
Overview
34%Possession66%
11Total Shots14
0.89Expected Goals (xG)1.47
6Corners8
11Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots14
0On Target5
3Off Target5
8Blocked4
7Inside Box8
4Outside Box6
Passing
34%Possession66%
284Total Passes558
215Accurate Passes480
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides5

Atlas 0 – 0 Toluca

Atlas and Toluca drew 0-0 in Liga MX on November 1, 2025.

Toluca controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.