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Tolosa vs Sestao River — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Tolosa
Tolosa
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Sestao River
Sestao River
1/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tolosa23%
×Draw23%
Sestao River54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolosa
1.06
Sestao River
1.77

Sestao River creates 67% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tolosa
1.08
Sestao River
1.75

allows per match

Tolosa
1.79
Sestao River
1.04

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw
46%
Tolosa or Sestao River
77%
Draw or Sestao River
77%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+
8%
Sestao River wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals
65%
Tolosa 2+ goals
29%
Tolosa 3+ goals
9%
Sestao River 1+ goals
83%
Sestao River 2+ goals
53%
Sestao River 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)
30%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Sestao River defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sestao River attack 1.75 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tolosa scores more
23%
level
23%
Sestao River scores more
54%

Sestao River at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Tolosa 0–5 Sestao River

Sestao River beat Tolosa 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Berazubi in Tolosa.