Sestao River 0–0 Tolosa: Result & Stats

Sestao River

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tolosa

10/18/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sestao River65%

×Draw22%

Tolosa13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sestao RiverExpected goals in this matchTolosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.69

Sestao River

1.86

Tolosa

0.69

Sestao River creates 170% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 48 away

2.00

creates per match

0.96

0.42

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Sestao River

2.00

Tolosa

0.96

allows per match

Sestao River

0.42

Tolosa

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par

Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Tolosa →

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw

87%

Sestao River or Tolosa

78%

Draw or Tolosa

35%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+

39%

Tolosa wins by 2+

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals

84%

Sestao River 2+ goals

55%

Sestao River 3+ goals

28%

Tolosa 1+ goals

50%

Tolosa 2+ goals

15%

Tolosa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)

83%

Tolosa (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.42 · 26 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 2.00 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Sestao River defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sestao River scores more

65%

level

22%

Tolosa scores more

13%

Sestao River at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff