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Tolosa vs Santurtzi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Tolosa
Tolosa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santurtzi
Santurtzi
1/4/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tolosa34%
×Draw26%
Santurtzi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolosa
1.27
Santurtzi
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 64 away

creates per match

Tolosa
1.08
Santurtzi
0.97

allows per match

Tolosa
1.79
Santurtzi
1.45

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par
Santurtzi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Santurtzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw
60%
Tolosa or Santurtzi
74%
Draw or Santurtzi
66%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+
15%
Santurtzi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals
72%
Tolosa 2+ goals
36%
Tolosa 3+ goals
14%
Santurtzi 1+ goals
75%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
40%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)
47%
Santurtzi (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Santurtzi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Santurtzi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Santurtzi attack 0.97 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tolosa scores more
34%
level
26%
Santurtzi scores more
40%

Santurtzi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santurtzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Tolosa 0–0 Santurtzi

Tolosa and Santurtzi drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de Berazubi in Tolosa.