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Santurtzi vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santurtzi
Santurtzi
CANC
22:00
Tolosa
Tolosa
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 38Estadio San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Santurtzi48%
×Draw27%
Tolosa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santurtzi
1.43
Tolosa
0.97

Santurtzi creates 47% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 48 away

creates per match

Santurtzi
1.13
Tolosa
0.96

allows per match

Santurtzi
0.98
Tolosa
1.73

finishing

Santurtzi+0.00on par
Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santurtzi ↓

Tolosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santurtzi or draw
74%
Santurtzi or Tolosa
73%
Draw or Tolosa
52%

Winning margin

Santurtzi wins by 2+
23%
Tolosa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Santurtzi 1+ goals
76%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
42%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
17%
Tolosa 1+ goals
62%
Tolosa 2+ goals
25%
Tolosa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santurtzi (draw refunded)
65%
Tolosa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santurtzi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santurtzi attack 1.13 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Santurtzi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santurtzi scores more
48%
level
27%
Tolosa scores more
26%

Santurtzi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santurtzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santurtzi face Tolosa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Santurtzi hosting Tolosa. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Santurtzi host Tolosa at Estadio San Jorge.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.