Tolosa 0–3 Deportivo Alavés II: Result & Stats

Tolosa

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Alavés II

1/15/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tolosa21%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Alavés II54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolosaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.66

Tolosa

0.94

Deportivo Alavés II

1.66

Deportivo Alavés II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 19 away

1.08

creates per match

1.53

1.79

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Tolosa

1.08

Deportivo Alavés II

1.53

allows per match

Tolosa

1.79

Deportivo Alavés II

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw

46%

Tolosa or Deportivo Alavés II

76%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés II

79%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals

61%

Tolosa 2+ goals

24%

Tolosa 3+ goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

49%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)

28%

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.53 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tolosa scores more

21%

level

24%

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

54%

Deportivo Alavés II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tolosa vs Deportivo Alavés II

Deportivo Alavés II beat Tolosa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio de Berazubi in Tolosa.

Tolosa vs Deportivo Alavés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tolosa vs Deportivo Alavés II