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Deportivo Alavés II vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Tolosa
Tolosa
9/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II63%
×Draw21%
Tolosa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés II
1.99
Tolosa
0.90

Deportivo Alavés II creates 121% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 48 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II
2.26
Tolosa
0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II
0.84
Tolosa
1.73

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par
Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Tolosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw
84%
Deportivo Alavés II or Tolosa
79%
Draw or Tolosa
37%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
38%
Tolosa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
86%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
59%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
32%
Tolosa 1+ goals
59%
Tolosa 2+ goals
23%
Tolosa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
79%
Tolosa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 2.26 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.99

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more
63%
level
21%
Tolosa scores more
16%

Deportivo Alavés II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Deportivo Alavés II 5–0 Tolosa

Deportivo Alavés II beat Tolosa 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.