Tolosa 1–4 Beti Gazte: Result & Stats

Tolosa

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Beti Gazte

9/26/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tolosa51%

×Draw22%

Beti Gazte26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolosaExpected goals in this matchBeti Gazte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.31

Tolosa

1.91

Beti Gazte

1.31

Tolosa creates 46% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 19 away

1.08

creates per match

0.84

1.79

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Tolosa

1.08

Beti Gazte

0.84

allows per match

Tolosa

1.79

Beti Gazte

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par

Beti Gazte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Beti Gazte →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw

74%

Tolosa or Beti Gazte

78%

Draw or Beti Gazte

49%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+

29%

Beti Gazte wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals

85%

Tolosa 2+ goals

57%

Tolosa 3+ goals

30%

Beti Gazte 1+ goals

73%

Beti Gazte 2+ goals

38%

Beti Gazte 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)

66%

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Beti Gazte away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Beti Gazte defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.91

Beti Gazte attack 0.84 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tolosa scores more

51%

level

22%

Beti Gazte scores more

26%

Tolosa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tolosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff