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Beti Gazte vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beti Gazte
Beti Gazte
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tolosa
Tolosa
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Campo de fútbol de Mastegi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beti Gazte40%
×Draw27%
Tolosa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Gazte
1.34
Tolosa
1.21

Beti Gazte creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 48 away

creates per match

Beti Gazte
0.95
Tolosa
0.96

allows per match

Beti Gazte
1.47
Tolosa
1.73

finishing

Beti Gazte+0.00on par
Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Gazte ↓

Tolosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Beti Gazte or draw
66%
Beti Gazte or Tolosa
73%
Draw or Tolosa
60%

Winning margin

Beti Gazte wins by 2+
18%
Tolosa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Beti Gazte 1+ goals
74%
Beti Gazte 2+ goals
39%
Beti Gazte 3+ goals
15%
Tolosa 1+ goals
70%
Tolosa 2+ goals
34%
Tolosa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)
54%
Tolosa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Gazte at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Gazte attack 0.95 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Beti Gazte defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beti Gazte scores more
40%
level
27%
Tolosa scores more
34%

Beti Gazte at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beti Gazte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Beti Gazte 2–2 Tolosa

Beti Gazte and Tolosa drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Mastegi in Lesaka.