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Tolmin vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Tolmin
Tolmin
FT
1 – 1
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
5/1/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 12Stadion Na Brajdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tolmin42%
×Draw22%
Sava Kranj36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolmin
1.83
Sava Kranj
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tolmin
2.17
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Tolmin
1.00
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Tolmin+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolmin ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tolmin or draw
64%
Tolmin or Sava Kranj
78%
Draw or Sava Kranj
58%

Winning margin

Tolmin wins by 2+
22%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tolmin 1+ goals
84%
Tolmin 2+ goals
54%
Tolmin 3+ goals
28%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
82%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
51%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tolmin (draw refunded)
53%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolmin at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolmin attack 2.17 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Tolmin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tolmin scores more
42%
level
22%
Sava Kranj scores more
36%

Tolmin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tolmin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Tolmin 1–1 Sava Kranj

Tolmin and Sava Kranj drew 1-1 in 3. SNL - West on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Na Brajdi in Tolmin.