Sava Kranj 2–4 Tolmin: Result & Stats

Sava Kranj

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Tolmin

6/5/2021

3. SNL - West · West - Relegation Round - 6Športni park Stražišče

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sava Kranj29%

×Draw23%

Tolmin49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sava KranjExpected goals in this matchTolmin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.88

Sava Kranj

1.39

Tolmin

1.88

Tolmin creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

1.33

creates per match

2.09

1.67

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Sava Kranj

1.33

Tolmin

2.09

allows per match

Sava Kranj

1.67

Tolmin

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Tolmin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sava Kranj ↓

Tolmin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sava Kranj or draw

51%

Sava Kranj or Tolmin

77%

Draw or Tolmin

71%

Winning margin

Sava Kranj wins by 2+

13%

Tolmin wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Sava Kranj 1+ goals

75%

Sava Kranj 2+ goals

40%

Sava Kranj 3+ goals

16%

Tolmin 1+ goals

85%

Tolmin 2+ goals

56%

Tolmin 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Sava Kranj (draw refunded)

37%

Tolmin (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sava Kranj at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Tolmin away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sava Kranj attack 1.33 + Tolmin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tolmin attack 2.09 + Sava Kranj defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sava Kranj scores more

29%

level

23%

Tolmin scores more

49%

Tolmin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tolmin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff