Tolmin 1–0 Fužinar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Tolmin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fužinar

7/30/2023

2. SNL · Round 1Stadion Na Brajdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tolmin37%

×Draw24%

Fužinar38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolminExpected goals in this matchFužinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.52

Tolmin

1.50

Fužinar

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 65 away

1.17

creates per match

1.37

1.67

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Tolmin

1.17

Fužinar

1.37

allows per match

Tolmin

1.67

Fužinar

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tolmin+0.00on par

Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolmin ↓

Fužinar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tolmin or draw

62%

Tolmin or Fužinar

76%

Draw or Fužinar

63%

Winning margin

Tolmin wins by 2+

18%

Fužinar wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tolmin 1+ goals

78%

Tolmin 2+ goals

44%

Tolmin 3+ goals

19%

Fužinar 1+ goals

78%

Fužinar 2+ goals

45%

Fužinar 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tolmin (draw refunded)

49%

Fužinar (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolmin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolmin attack 1.17 + Fužinar defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fužinar attack 1.37 + Tolmin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tolmin scores more

37%

level

24%

Fužinar scores more

38%

Fužinar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff