Fužinar 0–0 Tolmin: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Fužinar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tolmin

11/5/2023

2. SNL · Round 16Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fužinar50%

×Draw24%

Tolmin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FužinarExpected goals in this matchTolmin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.21

Fužinar

1.75

Tolmin

1.21

Fužinar creates 45% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

1.61

creates per match

0.83

1.58

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Fužinar

1.61

Tolmin

0.83

allows per match

Fužinar

1.58

Tolmin

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fužinar+0.00on par

Tolmin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fužinar ↓

Tolmin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fužinar or draw

74%

Fužinar or Tolmin

76%

Draw or Tolmin

50%

Winning margin

Fužinar wins by 2+

27%

Tolmin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fužinar 1+ goals

83%

Fužinar 2+ goals

52%

Fužinar 3+ goals

25%

Tolmin 1+ goals

70%

Tolmin 2+ goals

34%

Tolmin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fužinar (draw refunded)

65%

Tolmin (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fužinar at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

Tolmin away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fužinar attack 1.61 + Tolmin defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tolmin attack 0.83 + Fužinar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fužinar scores more

50%

level

24%

Tolmin scores more

26%

Fužinar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff