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Toledo vs San Clemente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Toledo
Toledo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Clemente
San Clemente
10/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 7Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Toledo67%
×Draw21%
San Clemente12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toledo
1.85
San Clemente
0.63

Toledo creates 194% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 50 away

creates per match

Toledo
1.84
San Clemente
0.70

allows per match

Toledo
0.55
San Clemente
1.86

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par
San Clemente+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

San Clemente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Toledo or draw
88%
Toledo or San Clemente
79%
Draw or San Clemente
33%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+
40%
San Clemente wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals
84%
Toledo 2+ goals
55%
Toledo 3+ goals
28%
San Clemente 1+ goals
47%
San Clemente 2+ goals
13%
San Clemente 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)
85%
San Clemente (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

San Clemente away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + San Clemente defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

San Clemente attack 0.70 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Toledo scores more
67%
level
21%
San Clemente scores more
12%

Toledo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toledo vs San Clemente

Toledo beat San Clemente 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo in Toledo.