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San Clemente vs Toledo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

San Clemente
San Clemente
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Toledo
Toledo
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 24Estadio Municipal San Clemente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Clemente30%
×Draw30%
Toledo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Clemente
0.97
Toledo
1.16

Toledo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 95 away

creates per match

San Clemente
1.10
Toledo
1.01

allows per match

San Clemente
1.31
Toledo
0.84

finishing

San Clemente+0.00on par
Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Clemente ↓

Toledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Clemente or draw
60%
San Clemente or Toledo
70%
Draw or Toledo
70%

Winning margin

San Clemente wins by 2+
11%
Toledo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

San Clemente 1+ goals
62%
San Clemente 2+ goals
25%
San Clemente 3+ goals
7%
Toledo 1+ goals
69%
Toledo 2+ goals
32%
Toledo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Clemente (draw refunded)
43%
Toledo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Clemente at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Toledo away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.84 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Clemente attack 1.10 + Toledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Toledo attack 1.01 + San Clemente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Clemente scores more
30%
level
30%
Toledo scores more
40%

Toledo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Clemente vs Toledo

San Clemente beat Toledo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Clemente in San Clemente.