Toledo 4–1 Noblejas: Result & Stats

Toledo

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Noblejas

10/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 6Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Toledo67%

×Draw19%

Noblejas14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToledoExpected goals in this matchNoblejas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.84

Toledo

2.13

Noblejas

0.84

Toledo creates 154% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

1.84

creates per match

1.12

0.55

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Toledo

1.84

Noblejas

1.12

allows per match

Toledo

0.55

Noblejas

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par

Noblejas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

Noblejas →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Toledo or draw

86%

Toledo or Noblejas

81%

Draw or Noblejas

33%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+

43%

Noblejas wins by 2+

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals

88%

Toledo 2+ goals

63%

Toledo 3+ goals

35%

Noblejas 1+ goals

57%

Noblejas 2+ goals

21%

Noblejas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)

83%

Noblejas (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

Noblejas away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + Noblejas defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.13

Noblejas attack 1.12 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Toledo scores more

67%

level

19%

Noblejas scores more

14%

Toledo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff