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Noblejas vs Toledo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Noblejas
Noblejas
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Toledo
Toledo
2/22/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 23Estadio Municipal Ángel Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Noblejas21%
×Draw28%
Toledo51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noblejas
0.74
Toledo
1.33

Toledo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

creates per match

Noblejas
0.65
Toledo
1.01

allows per match

Noblejas
1.65
Toledo
0.84

finishing

Noblejas+0.00on par
Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noblejas ↓

Toledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Noblejas or draw
49%
Noblejas or Toledo
72%
Draw or Toledo
79%

Winning margin

Noblejas wins by 2+
6%
Toledo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Noblejas 1+ goals
52%
Noblejas 2+ goals
17%
Noblejas 3+ goals
4%
Toledo 1+ goals
74%
Toledo 2+ goals
38%
Toledo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Noblejas (draw refunded)
29%
Toledo (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noblejas at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Toledo away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.84 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noblejas attack 0.65 + Toledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.74

Toledo attack 1.01 + Noblejas defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Noblejas scores more
21%
level
28%
Toledo scores more
51%

Toledo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noblejas vs Toledo

Toledo beat Noblejas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Luengo in Noblejas.