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Lystrup vs AaB II — Denmark Series - Group 4 2018

Lystrup
Lystrup
FT
1 – 2
AaB II
AaB II
8/25/2018Denmark Series - Group 4Denmark Series - Group 4 · Round 4Lystrup Enge Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lystrup23%
×Draw24%
AaB II53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lystrup
1.00
AaB II
1.67

AaB II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lystrup
1.00
AaB II
1.67

allows per match

Lystrup
1.67
AaB II
1.00

finishing

Lystrup+0.00on par
AaB II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lystrup ↓

AaB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lystrup or draw
47%
Lystrup or AaB II
76%
Draw or AaB II
77%

Winning margin

Lystrup wins by 2+
8%
AaB II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Lystrup 1+ goals
63%
Lystrup 2+ goals
26%
Lystrup 3+ goals
8%
AaB II 1+ goals
81%
AaB II 2+ goals
50%
AaB II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lystrup (draw refunded)
30%
AaB II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lystrup at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

AaB II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lystrup attack 1.00 + AaB II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

AaB II attack 1.67 + Lystrup defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lystrup scores more
23%
level
24%
AaB II scores more
53%

AaB II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AaB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lystrup vs AaB II

AaB II beat Lystrup 2-1 in Denmark Series - Group 4 on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Lystrup Enge Idrætsanlæg in Lystrup.