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AaB II vs Lystrup — League #127 2026

AaB II
AaB II
FT
3 – 1
Lystrup
Lystrup
10/27/2018League #127League #127 · Round 13AaB's Anlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AaB II58%
×Draw20%
Lystrup22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AaB II
2.29
Lystrup
1.35

AaB II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

AaB II
1.73
Lystrup
0.71

allows per match

AaB II
2.00
Lystrup
2.86

finishing

AaB II+0.00on par
Lystrup+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AaB II ↓

Lystrup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

AaB II or draw
78%
AaB II or Lystrup
80%
Draw or Lystrup
42%

Winning margin

AaB II wins by 2+
36%
Lystrup wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AaB II 1+ goals
90%
AaB II 2+ goals
66%
AaB II 3+ goals
40%
Lystrup 1+ goals
74%
Lystrup 2+ goals
39%
Lystrup 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AaB II (draw refunded)
73%
Lystrup (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AaB II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Lystrup away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AaB II attack 1.73 + Lystrup defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.29

Lystrup attack 0.71 + AaB II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AaB II scores more
58%
level
20%
Lystrup scores more
22%

AaB II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "AaB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #127: AaB II 3–1 Lystrup

AaB II beat Lystrup 3-1 in League #127 on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at AaB's Anlæg in Aalborg.