Toledo Villa 0–3 South Bend Lions: Result & Stats

Toledo Villa

FT

0 – 3

South Bend Lions

6/19/2021

USL League Two · Round 31Paul Hotmer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Toledo Villa46%

×Draw21%

South Bend Lions33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toledo VillaExpected goals in this matchSouth Bend Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.84

Toledo Villa

2.18

South Bend Lions

1.84

Toledo Villa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 28 away

1.72

creates per match

1.50

2.18

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Toledo Villa

1.72

South Bend Lions

1.50

allows per match

Toledo Villa

2.18

South Bend Lions

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toledo Villa+0.00on par

South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo Villa ↓

South Bend Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Toledo Villa or draw

67%

Toledo Villa or South Bend Lions

79%

Draw or South Bend Lions

54%

Winning margin

Toledo Villa wins by 2+

27%

South Bend Lions wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Toledo Villa 1+ goals

89%

Toledo Villa 2+ goals

64%

Toledo Villa 3+ goals

37%

South Bend Lions 1+ goals

84%

South Bend Lions 2+ goals

55%

South Bend Lions 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Toledo Villa (draw refunded)

58%

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo Villa at home — creates 1.72, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo Villa attack 1.72 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.18

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Toledo Villa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Toledo Villa scores more

46%

level

21%

South Bend Lions scores more

33%

Toledo Villa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Toledo Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff