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South Bend Lions vs Toledo Villa — USL League Two 2018

South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Toledo Villa
Toledo Villa
6/29/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 53South Bend Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

South Bend Lions45%
×Draw23%
Toledo Villa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Bend Lions
1.75
Toledo Villa
1.46

South Bend Lions creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 37 away

creates per match

South Bend Lions
1.52
Toledo Villa
1.24

allows per match

South Bend Lions
1.67
Toledo Villa
1.97

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par
Toledo Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Toledo Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw
68%
South Bend Lions or Toledo Villa
77%
Draw or Toledo Villa
55%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+
24%
Toledo Villa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals
83%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
52%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
25%
Toledo Villa 1+ goals
77%
Toledo Villa 2+ goals
43%
Toledo Villa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
58%
Toledo Villa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Toledo Villa away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Toledo Villa defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Toledo Villa attack 1.24 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

South Bend Lions scores more
45%
level
23%
Toledo Villa scores more
32%

South Bend Lions at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "South Bend Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Bend Lions vs Toledo Villa

South Bend Lions beat Toledo Villa 3-0 in USL League Two on June 29, 2022.

The match was played at South Bend Lions Stadium in South Bend, Indiana.