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Toledo Villa vs Grand Rapids — USL League Two 2018

Toledo Villa
Toledo Villa
FT
2 – 5
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
7/2/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 41Paul Hotmer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Toledo Villa21%
×Draw19%
Grand Rapids61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toledo Villa
1.43
Grand Rapids
2.52

Grand Rapids creates 76% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 7 away

creates per match

Toledo Villa
1.72
Grand Rapids
2.86

allows per match

Toledo Villa
2.18
Grand Rapids
1.14

finishing

Toledo Villa+0.00on par
Grand Rapids+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo Villa ↓

Grand Rapids →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Toledo Villa or draw
39%
Toledo Villa or Grand Rapids
81%
Draw or Grand Rapids
79%

Winning margin

Toledo Villa wins by 2+
9%
Grand Rapids wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Toledo Villa 1+ goals
76%
Toledo Villa 2+ goals
42%
Toledo Villa 3+ goals
17%
Grand Rapids 1+ goals
92%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
71%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Toledo Villa (draw refunded)
25%
Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo Villa at home — creates 1.72, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

Grand Rapids away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo Villa attack 1.72 + Grand Rapids defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.43

Grand Rapids attack 2.86 + Toledo Villa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Toledo Villa scores more
21%
level
19%
Grand Rapids scores more
61%

Grand Rapids at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toledo Villa vs Grand Rapids

Grand Rapids beat Toledo Villa 5-2 in USL League Two on July 2, 2021.

The match was played at Paul Hotmer Field in Toledo.