Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grand Rapids vs Toledo Villa — USL League Two 2018

Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
FT
6 – 0
Toledo Villa
Toledo Villa
6/30/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 40Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grand Rapids55%
×Draw21%
Toledo Villa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Rapids
2.06
Toledo Villa
1.27

Grand Rapids creates 62% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 37 away

creates per match

Grand Rapids
2.14
Toledo Villa
1.24

allows per match

Grand Rapids
1.29
Toledo Villa
1.97

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par
Toledo Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

Toledo Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw
77%
Grand Rapids or Toledo Villa
79%
Draw or Toledo Villa
45%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+
33%
Toledo Villa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals
87%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
61%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
34%
Toledo Villa 1+ goals
72%
Toledo Villa 2+ goals
36%
Toledo Villa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
70%
Toledo Villa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Toledo Villa away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + Toledo Villa defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.06

Toledo Villa attack 1.24 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Grand Rapids scores more
55%
level
21%
Toledo Villa scores more
23%

Grand Rapids at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grand Rapids vs Toledo Villa

Grand Rapids beat Toledo Villa 6-0 in USL League Two on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1 in Kentwood.