Tokyo Verdy 0–2 Shonan Bellmare: Result & Stats

Tokyo Verdy

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shonan Bellmare

10/6/2024

J1 League · Round 33Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tokyo Verdy40%

×Draw27%

Shonan Bellmare33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokyo VerdyExpected goals in this matchShonan Bellmare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.20

Tokyo Verdy

1.36

Shonan Bellmare

1.20

Tokyo Verdy creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 142 away

1.17

creates per match

1.12

1.28

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.17

Shonan Bellmare

1.12

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.28

Shonan Bellmare

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Shonan Bellmare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw

67%

Tokyo Verdy or Shonan Bellmare

73%

Draw or Shonan Bellmare

60%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

19%

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

74%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

39%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

16%

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

70%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

34%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

55%

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.17 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.12 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more

40%

level

27%

Shonan Bellmare scores more

33%

Tokyo Verdy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff